The short answerViking lead Eliteserien on 59 points to Bodø/Glimt's 56 after 24 games. On the Index, Bodø/Glimt are 26th in the world and Viking 90th, a gap of 0.92 goals per 90 minutes. Viking have taken about five more points than their chances usually earn; Bodø/Glimt about three fewer. We do not publish a win probability.
Bodø/Glimt host Viking at Aspmyra on Friday, 19:00 local time and 18:00 in the UK, in round 25 of 30. The table says the visitors are in charge. Viking have 59 points from 24 games, three more than Bodø/Glimt, and they have won their last five league games. Bodø/Glimt lost 1-0 at home to Vålerenga on Saturday, which is how a level race became a three-point lead.
Our ratings tell a different story. They say the side three points behind is the stronger team, and by some distance.
The table
Viking have won 19, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 62 and conceding 23. Bodø/Glimt have won 18, drawn 2 and lost 4, with 58 scored and 21 conceded. Goal difference is 39 against 37. A Bodø/Glimt win on Friday would bring them level on points with five games to play.
There is history here. Last season Viking won the title by a single point, 71 to 70, after Bodø/Glimt lost 3-1 to Vålerenga on 1 November. Vålerenga have now beaten Glimt again at the business end.
The Index
On our scale, which puts clubs from every league on one ladder, Bodø/Glimt are rated 1668. That makes them 26th in the world. Viking are rated 1500, 90th. The gap of 168 points works out at about 0.92 goals per 90 minutes, which is a big difference between two teams in the same league.
Every rating comes with a range. Our 80% range for Bodø/Glimt runs from 13th to 44th in the world; for Viking it runs from 52nd to 145th. The two ranges do not overlap. Bodø/Glimt are also rated rising, while Viking are rated steady.
Viking's rating does not yet include Sunday's 3-1 win over Tromsø, because our latest run uses results to 25 October. One win will not close a gap of this size.
On our scale, which puts clubs from every league on one ladder, Bodø/Glimt are rated 1668.
Points against performance
We also estimate how many points each side's chances for and against would usually earn. Bodø/Glimt have 56 points from 24 games against an expected 59, about three fewer than their football deserved. Viking had 56 points from the 23 games in our run against an expected 51, about five more.
That is not a slight on Viking. They are the champions, they have won five in a row, and some teams keep beating their numbers for a long time. But in our numbers, Viking are top partly through results running ahead of their chances. Bodø/Glimt's position is the opposite.
How they play
Bodø/Glimt's style stands out in Eliteserien. Compared with the rest of Eliteserien, they are very high for completions near the opponent's box, for touches in the box and for dribbling. They spend a lot of time camped in the final third. Viking's most distinctive trait in our data is their aerial game, which is well above the league norm.
For more on how good the league is, and how Norway's best compare with Europe's, see how strong is Eliteserien.
What Friday can tell us
One game will not settle whether our ratings are right about these teams. A Viking win at Aspmyra would put them six points clear and make their lead very hard to overturn, whatever the underlying numbers say. A Bodø/Glimt win would make the table look a lot more like our ratings.
We will not put a percentage on it. What we can say is that, on everything our ratings measure, the team at home on Friday has played the better football this season. Viking have the points. Bodø/Glimt have the performances. Friday decides which matters more in this title race.
FAQ
Who is top of Eliteserien?
Viking, on 59 points from 24 games, three ahead of Bodø/Glimt on 56. They meet at Aspmyra on Friday 30 October.
Who is the better team on the Index?
Bodø/Glimt. They are 26th in the world on our ratings and Viking are 90th, a gap of about 0.92 goals per 90 minutes.
Are Viking lucky?
Our numbers say Viking have taken about five more points than their chances would usually earn, and Bodø/Glimt about three fewer. That is a description of this season, not a prediction.