Long reads, measured properly
The runs nobody counts
Most football numbers are a record of what happened to the ball. The run that dragged a defender away, the sprint that stopped a counter before it…
Kim Hellberg's Middlesbrough are top on merit, and built to last
Once every game is judged against the opponent, Boro have the Championship's best football by a distance. The attack has grown under Hellberg; the…
Millwall are better than 13th, and Stoke are flattered by ninth
We judged every Championship game against the opponent. Millwall play like a top-four side, Stoke and Sheffield United like the bottom two, and…
Ture Spendler: Norrby's left-back is ready for the Allsvenskan
He is the Superettan's most progressive full-back, better in each of three seasons, and the players who made the same jump before him kept most of…
The World Ranking: opponents now count, and Barcelona slip to third
Every game is now judged against the opponent. Arsenal return to No. 1, PSG climb, and the Luck Table shows who has been lucky against easy fixtures.
Dortmund v Bremen: closer than the brands suggest
Dortmund’s rating falls once you count their soft schedule. Bremen have faced one of the toughest runs in the Bundesliga. The cup tie is not a…
Liverpool v Chelsea: both better than their results
Chelsea have faced the harder Premier League schedule. Both sides get a small lift once opponents are counted. Liverpool still rate higher.
PSG 2-0 Lyon: the bench broke the block
Mayulu and Godts, both substitutes, scored the goals that took PSG top. For an hour Lyon’s deep block held. The season numbers said the gap would…
Scott or Camara: what £100m buys Liverpool
Bournemouth are rated 1721, 16th in the world, with a +28 opponent-adjustment lift. That is why Scott costs what he costs. Camara is the cheaper…
Bruno Fernandes: is he declining? Not where it matters
He's 32, out of contract in 2027, and the market is pricing in a decline. Seven seasons of our data say his passing hasn't aged. His running has.
Marcus Linday: Heerenveen's midfielder is ready for a top league
Braga bid €6.5m and were turned down. Our numbers say the Swede belongs a level higher: his ball-winning would rank near the top 10% even in a Big…
The Monday Index: Madrid win the argument, Inter leave it late
Seven stories from the weekend, from the Camp Nou to Montréal, and what our numbers said about each before a ball was kicked.
Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid: how Bellingham turned the Clásico
Mbappé scored both goals, but Madrid won the Camp Nou by going toe-to-toe with Barcelona, and Bellingham did the work off the ball.
Man Utd 0-3 Bournemouth: are United really a 16th-placed side?
Bournemouth won easily at Old Trafford. But before Sunday, United’s football was worth the sixth-best points rate in the league.
Nashville won the Shield. Vancouver play the best football
Nashville lead MLS by 15 points with three games left. On the Beaumont Index, Vancouver have the best underlying numbers.
Palmeiras lead, but Flamengo are the better team
Palmeiras went top on Saturday. Flamengo are Brazil's highest-rated club, have the best underlying numbers and a game in hand.
J1's luck story: Sanfrecce deserve more, Kashima's run is over
Sanfrecce are Japan's highest-rated club and keep falling short of their numbers. Kashima's title came with a huge surplus, and it has gone.
PSG v Lyon preview, and why PSG are fifth in the world
Level on points, a goal a game apart on rating. PSG dominate Ligue 1 more than Arsenal dominate England. The league discount explains the rest.
Chelsea 0-2 Spurs: how De Zerbi took over Stamford Bridge
Spurs had 69% of the ball and twice as many shots. Chelsea’s set-piece problem and a no-striker gamble did the rest.
Viking, Lazio and Forest: Europe's luckiest and unluckiest teams
We ranked 154 clubs in our eight launch leagues by how far their results are from their performances. Viking still lead the lucky list, Lazio are…
David Raum to Manchester United? What the numbers say
This weekend's reports say Leipzig's captain is United's top January target. Six seasons of data on whether he's a habit or a spike, how he'd fit…
Inter v Fiorentina preview: top v 18th, but not as far apart
Inter are Italy's best side by rating and 15th in the world. Fiorentina are 18th in the table but 13th on rating, and the gap between those numbers…
PSV v Feyenoord preview: the leaders meet the rating
Feyenoord are top, unbeaten and have out-created every league opponent. PSV are still the Netherlands' highest-rated club, 50th in the world, and…
Barcelona v Real Madrid preview: perfect Barça, honest Madrid
Barcelona have won all nine league games and are 3rd in the world. Madrid, 6th, have earned exactly what their football deserved. Here is what the…
Manchester United v Bournemouth: two good sides, two bad tables
Seven games in, United and Bournemouth are two of the Premier League's four unluckiest teams. Their football deserves more. Sunday at Old Trafford…
Aston Villa 2-1 Man City: how Emery's side beat the unbeaten
City had 63% of the ball, seven shots on target and a perfect record. Villa had two shots on target and Nicolas Jackson. A tactical look at…
Betis 2-5 Barcelona: how Flick's 4-2-3-1 pulled the luckiest team in LaLiga apart
Same shape, very different games. Barcelona had the ball, the press and the right flank; Betis had two good moments and one very bad one. A tactical…
Eight players nobody is watching, and the one thing each does better than almost anyone in his league
A left-back who passes like a quarterback, a No. 6 who scores, a striker who defends for a living. Eight second-tier players from eight countries…
Carrick, Arbeloa and Hayen are on the clock. The clock is wrong.
Most completed coaching spells end within four months. Teams peak at about 16. A study of 6,876 spells suggests football fires people for the bit…
How strong is the Eliteserien compared with the Premier League?
The short version: the gap is big, but not as uniform as you think. The best of Norway would survive in England; the middle of Norway would not.