Ratings and world ranks in this piece come from before our 25 October 2026 ranking update. Current figures are on each club's page.
The short answerPSG and Lyon are level on 14 points, but PSG are rated about 0.9 goals a game better and are at home. They are fifth in the world on our ratings because Ligue 1 is weaker than the Premier League. They dominate their own league more than Arsenal or City dominate theirs.
Paris Saint-Germain against Lyon was meant to be Sunday night's game. It was moved to Monday, 19:30 UK time at the Parc des Princes, after the security situation around Saturday's demonstrations in Paris. The extra day helps both squads a little. It does not fix PSG's injury list, and it does not change the most interesting fact about the fixture: two clubs level on 14 points from seven games, with our ratings putting them about a goal a game apart.
This preview also answers a question readers have asked since we published our world ranking. If PSG are, to many people, the best team in Europe, why does the Beaumont Index have them fifth?
Why PSG are fifth in the world
Our ratings put every club on one scale: goals per 90 minutes better or worse than an average club from Europe's top five leagues. Two things go into that number. The first is how far a club is above its own league. The second is how strong that league is against the rest of the world, which we measure from every cross-league match, including European competition.
On the first measure, PSG are outstanding. They are 1.22 goals a game better than an average Ligue 1 club. Arsenal are 0.90 better than an average Premier League club, and Manchester City 0.64. Of the six highest-rated clubs, only Bayern München (1.63) and Barcelona (1.46) dominate their leagues by more.
The second measure is where PSG lose ground. The Premier League rates about 0.80 goals a game stronger than Ligue 1 on our numbers, based on how English clubs perform against everyone else. Being a goal and a quarter better than Lens, Lyon and Marseille is a huge achievement. It is not the same as being a goal and a quarter better than Brighton, Liverpool and Chelsea every week.
Since this week we also count each club's own results in continental competition, not just its league's. That change moved PSG up our ranking, because their recent Champions League record is the strongest evidence that they are better than their league suggests. Tuesday's 4-2 win over Barcelona is part of the reason. Put together, PSG are rated 1691, 5th in the world, behind Arsenal, Bayern, Barcelona and Manchester City, and just ahead of Real Madrid.
Ratings come with uncertainty, and PSG's plausible range runs from 3rd to 16th. That width tells you something too. A club that plays most of its matches in a league with fewer strong opponents is simply harder to measure precisely. The evidence that PSG belong among the very best is strong. The evidence that they are clearly the best is not there yet.
Being a goal and a quarter better than Lens, Lyon and Marseille is a huge achievement.
Their rating is also falling. Our trend measure has PSG slipping by about 0.45 goals a game, and that was before the latest injuries. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia tore an anterior cruciate ligament against Barcelona and is expected to miss months. Ousmane Dembélé and Marquinhos have thigh injuries, and Nuno Mendes is out with a muscle problem. All four are expected to miss Monday's game, according to reports in France and the UK. Between them they have started most of PSG's biggest matches this autumn, so Luis Enrique's side will look different.
PSG's season: earned, not lucky
PSG have 14 points from seven league games and their football has been worth 1.94 points a game, almost exactly their actual rate of 2.00. That pattern goes back years. Across 2024-25 they finished +0.3 points against expectation, and across 2025-26 +2.7. For three seasons, PSG's league results have been an honest reflection of their football. There is no cushion of luck to run out.
Their form is not spotless. Their recent league run includes a draw and a defeat, and the 3-1 win over Strasbourg last weekend came at the cost of Mendes's injury. But the Barcelona result showed the squad's depth: Lucas Hernández, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz and Désiré Doué all scored. Doué has scored in his last three matches.
Lyon: a good start with some help from last season
Paulo Fonseca's Lyon are also on 14 points, and top of the table on goal difference going into the weekend. They beat Nice 2-1 last Sunday through Pavel Šulc and Tanner Tessmann. They are rated 1520, third in Ligue 1 on our numbers and 42nd in the world, and rated as rising. Their football this season has been worth 1.83 points a game, so their position is mostly deserved.
Last season is the warning. Lyon finished +7.2 points ahead of their expected total in 2025-26, a big surplus for a season. This season they are only +1.2 points ahead, which is close to fair. They have become a team whose results match their chances, and that is a good sign for how long this start can last.
Fonseca also rotated heavily for Thursday's 3-0 Europa League defeat at Hoffenheim with this game in mind, starting Steeve Kango and Rémi Himbert for the first time in this run. That says a lot about how much Lyon want this match. Keito Nakamura is suspended after his red card against Nice, Lois Openda is injured, and Nicolás Tagliafico and Mohamed Ouédraogo are also out. Šulc is a doubt with a knee problem.
Where the game is decided
PSG are expected to line up in their usual 4-3-3, with a front three built around Doué on the left, Ferran Torres through the middle and Maghnes Akliouche on the right, according to French reports. That is a mobile, rotating line rather than one with a fixed reference point, and it relies on Vitinha and the midfield to keep the ball high up the pitch. Illia Zabarnyi is expected to partner Willian Pacho in place of Marquinhos.
Lyon's best route is the counter. With Fonseca's side likely to sit deeper than they do against most Ligue 1 opponents, the space behind PSG's full-backs is the obvious target, particularly with Achraf Hakimi pushed high on the right. Ernest Nuamah's pace on the break is the kind of threat that can punish it, and Corentin Tolisso's late runs from midfield give Lyon a second route to goal.
The verdict
On our numbers, PSG are about 0.9 goals a game better than Lyon before injuries, and they are at home. That is a big gap between clubs level on points. Missing four regular starters narrows it, but PSG's depth is exactly what the Barcelona win demonstrated. The Index does not predict scores. It does say that the table currently flatters the closeness of this pair more than the football does.
As for the bigger question: PSG are an elite team, rated fifth in the world and the highest-rated club outside England, Germany and Spain. If they keep winning in the Champions League, our continental-results term will push them higher, which is how it should be. A ranking has to be earned in matches against the best, not in the opinion polls.
FAQ
When is PSG v Lyon?
Monday 26 October 2026 at 19:30 UK time (20:30 in France) at the Parc des Princes. It was moved from Sunday because of the security situation in Paris.
Why are PSG only fifth in the Beaumont Index world ranking?
PSG dominate Ligue 1 by more than Arsenal or Manchester City dominate the Premier League, but our ratings rate the Premier League about 0.8 goals a game stronger than Ligue 1. Their continental results lift them, and their plausible range runs from third to 16th.
Who is missing for PSG and Lyon?
PSG are without Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembélé, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes. Lyon are without the suspended Keito Nakamura and the injured Lois Openda, Nicolás Tagliafico and Mohamed Ouédraogo, with Pavel Šulc a doubt.