Ratings and world ranks in this piece come from before our 25 October 2026 ranking update. Current figures are on each club's page.
The short answerNashville SC won the 2026 Supporters' Shield with 70 points and three games left, but they have the biggest surplus of points over chances in MLS. Vancouver Whitecaps have the best underlying numbers and are rated top on the Beaumont Index, despite having 15 fewer points.
Nashville SC won the 2026 Supporters' Shield on Saturday, beating CF Montréal 2-0 to clinch the best regular-season record in MLS for the first time in their history. They have 70 points from 31 games, 15 more than anyone else, and three games left to chase Inter Miami's single-season record of 74 points from 2024. Four more points would equal it. Five would break it. Their rate of 2.26 points a game is already the best of any Supporters' Shield winner since the league began in 1996, ahead of Miami's 2.18 in 2024.
It has been a superb season, and B.J. Callaghan's side deserve the trophy. But the Beaumont Index has a different answer to the question of who is the best team in MLS. On our ratings it is Vancouver Whitecaps, leaders of the Western Conference, rated 1407 and 112th in the world. Nashville are second at 1404. The gap is 3 rating points, which is nothing. The gap in the table is 15 points.
The regular season is not over. Clubs have three rounds left, running until 7 November, before the playoffs begin on 20 November. That is enough time for the luck in this table to start evening out, and in MLS it often does. A caveat on the figures that follow: in MLS, our expected points come from each club's season-long average chance quality rather than match-by-match shot data. They are indicative, and the sizes should be read with some care.
Nashville: brilliant, and fortunate
Nothing here takes away from what Nashville have done. They have conceded 23 goals, the fewest in the league, and their designated-player trio of Sam Surridge, Hany Mukhtar and Cristian Espinoza have 63 goal contributions between them. Their football is genuinely excellent: our estimate values it at about 57 points, among the best totals in MLS.
The trouble is that they have 70 points, about 13 more than that. It is the biggest surplus in the league. Some of it will be quality the estimate cannot see. A side that concedes so few goals often has a goalkeeper and back line performing above the average for the chances they face. But a gap that size usually includes plenty of good fortune.
The striking part is the history. In 2024, Nashville finished about 19 points short of their expected total. In 2025, they were about 11 short again. Two seasons of bad luck have turned into one of very good luck. The swing from last year to this is about 24 points. Their football has improved, and our ratings say they are rising, but the table has exaggerated how much.
Vancouver: the best football in the league
Vancouver's numbers are the mirror image. On our estimate, their chances created and conceded are worth about 65 points this season, the highest total in MLS by some distance. They have 55. They lead the Western Conference by a single point from FC Dallas, when their football says they should be clear.
The trouble is that they have 70 points, about 13 more than that.
And unlike Nashville, their luck has not turned. Vancouver were about 14 points short of their chances in 2024 and 7 short in 2025, when they still took 63 points. Three seasons in a row of finishing below their numbers is unusual. It may say something about their finishing or their goalkeeping. It also means that, on performance, they have been better than their record for a long time.
Our ratings, which are designed to look through this kind of noise, rate Vancouver as rising and the best team in North America's top league. They have scored 63 goals and conceded 32 in 31 games, the second-best goal difference in MLS behind Nashville.
The rest of the contenders
Inter Miami are third on our ratings and level on 55 points with New England in the East, behind Nashville. Miami's results are almost exactly in line with their chances. They score more than anyone, 73 goals, and concede plenty too. New England are the other big overachiever: about 11 points ahead of their chances, second only to Nashville, with football our estimate rates in the bottom half of the league.
At the other end, several clubs with decent underlying numbers are scrapping for wild-card places or have fallen out of contention. Philadelphia Union, last year's Shield winners, are about 9 points short of their chances. Seattle Sounders are about 8 short. Minnesota United, who were in the playoff places last year, are about 12 short and outside the top nine in the West. CF Montréal, bottom of the East, have the biggest shortfall in the league.
The Western race
The fight for the top seed in the West is tighter than in the East, and the numbers favour the leaders. FC Dallas, a point behind Vancouver on 54, have about 6 more points than their chances suggest. St. Louis City, on 51, are about 4 short of theirs and rated as rising. LAFC, sixth on 46 points, are about 5 short, but they are the one leading club our ratings mark as falling.
With three games each left, nobody can be written off. But if results drift towards performance in the final rounds, Vancouver and St. Louis are the sides with room to gain, and Dallas the side with the most to lose.
How good is MLS's best?
For readers used to European football, some scale helps. Our ratings put an average club from Europe's top five leagues at about 1500, with about 180 points worth a goal a game. Vancouver, at 1407, sit about 0.52 of a goal a game below that level. Nashville and Miami are close behind. These ratings are adjusted for league strength, so they compare MLS's best with Europe's directly. On that measure, the top of MLS sits a level below an average side in Europe's big five leagues, and close to the best clubs in Brazil and Japan.
What the run-in will tell us
The Index does not make predictions. What it can do is say where the evidence points as the regular season ends. Nashville have the Shield, the top seed in the East and home advantage through the playoffs, all earned. Whether they also have the record depends on three games, starting at home to Philadelphia on Wednesday 28 October.
But the playoffs are short, knockout football, where the luck that built a 15-point lead offers no protection. If the question is which team has played the best football in MLS this season, the answer is Vancouver. If the question is which team's results are most likely to come back towards the pack, it is Nashville. The playoffs, from 20 November, will show which of those matters more.
Across every league we measure, the same lesson holds. Clubs well ahead of their chances usually drift back, and clubs well behind them usually recover. In MLS this autumn, those two clubs are the two best teams in the league.
FAQ
Who won the 2026 Supporters' Shield?
Nashville SC, after a 2-0 win at CF Montréal on 24 October. They have 70 points from 31 games, with three regular-season games left.
Can Nashville break the MLS points record?
The record is 74 points, set by Inter Miami in 2024. Nashville need four points from their last three games to equal it and five to break it.
Who is the best team in MLS on the Beaumont Index?
Vancouver Whitecaps, rated 1407 and 112th in our world ranking, just ahead of Nashville at 1404. Vancouver have the best expected-points total in MLS this season.