David Raum to Manchester United? What the numbers say

Ratings and world ranks in this piece come from before our 25 October 2026 ranking update. Current figures are on each club's page.

The short answerDavid Raum has been in the top 4% of Bundesliga full-backs for expected assists in all six seasons since 2021-22. He's a consistent creator, not a one-season spike. He would fit United's 4-2-3-1 naturally. The risk is defensive: his duel numbers are inconsistent. Our verdict: strong fit, moderate risk.

Manchester United want a left-back, and this weekend's reports say they have decided which one. RB Leipzig's captain, David Raum, is said to be the club's top target for January. Reports suggest he is keen on the move, that Juventus are also interested and that Leipzig might take a fee of around £30m, because his contract runs out at the end of June 2027. We can't tell you whether any of that is true. What we can tell you is what kind of player United would be buying, whether his numbers are a spike or a habit, and how he'd fit the way United play.

The short version is that Raum is one of the most consistent chance creators among full-backs in European football. The longer version has a catch, and it's on the defensive side.

Six seasons, one habit

Start with the number that matters most for an attacking full-back: expected assists, the quality of the chances a player sets up regardless of whether team-mates finish them. We've ranked Raum against every Bundesliga full-back with enough minutes in each of the last six seasons, his last at Hoffenheim and five at Leipzig. His percentiles read 99, 97, 96, 97, 98 and, in this season's small sample, 99. He has been in the top 4% of the league's full-backs for expected assists every season since 2021-22.

That's the most important fact in this report, because it answers the question every transfer should start with. Is this a spike or a habit? It's a habit. Plenty of full-backs have one season where crosses land on heads and the assist count jumps. Raum has done it at two clubs, under several coaches, in seasons where his team was good and seasons where it was merely fine. Across his five full seasons he has 33 league assists from chances worth about 46. That's fewer than the chances deserved, so team-mates' finishing has, if anything, undersold him. Luck isn't flattering this record.

He's not just a crosser, either. Last season he was in the 98th percentile among Bundesliga full-backs for progressive passes, the passes that move the ball meaningfully towards goal, and the 98th for shot assists. His cross accuracy jumped to the 91st percentile, from the 13th to 24th range in his first three Leipzig seasons. That's the most interesting change in his profile: the volume was always there, and last season the delivery got cleaner.

This season the sample is small: six league games and 549 minutes, which is essentially every minute Leipzig have played. But the shape is the same. He is creating 3.44 shot assists per 90, the best rate of any Bundesliga full-back with 270 minutes, and is again in the 99th percentile for progressive passes. He hasn't got an assist yet. The chances say that won't last.

The catch: duels

Now the less flattering part. Raum's defending numbers move around a lot more than his creating numbers. His percentile for defensive duels won has gone 50, 75, 41, 58 and 17 over five full seasons, and is 26 this season. In the air he has never been above the 80th percentile and has usually sat around the middle of the pack or below.

His cross accuracy jumped to the 91st percentile, from the 13th to 24th range in his first three Leipzig seasons.

There's a nuance. Last season he made more successful defensive actions than most full-backs and was in the 94th percentile for interceptions, so he isn't passive. He reads the game and steps in. What he doesn't always do is win the one-on-one when a winger runs at him. In the Bundesliga that's a manageable weakness. In the Premier League, where the right wingers are quicker and come at you every week, it would be tested.

How he'd fit United

United have used a 4-2-3-1 in six of their seven league games this season. That matters, because it's the shape Raum knows best. Leipzig set up in a 4-3-3 in 21 of the 27 league games from last season in our match data, with Raum as the overlapping full-back outside a narrow left winger. In United's 4-2-3-1, the left-back is asked to provide width while the left-sided attacker comes inside. It's essentially the job he already does.

The bigger question is who he would replace. Luke Shaw has played 352 league minutes this season. Patrick Dorgu, with 380, is listed in our data as much as a winger as a full-back, and Noussair Mazraoui, with 404, is really a right-back who can cover the left. Against Premier League full-backs this season, Shaw is in the 87th percentile for expected assists, which is good. Dorgu is in the 95th but the 16th for progressive passes: he creates by running, not passing. Mazraoui is in the 14th for expected assists. He is a safe pair of hands, not a creator.

Be careful with that chart. Raum's percentiles are against Bundesliga full-backs. United's are against Premier League full-backs, and our model rates the average Premier League club about 145 rating points stronger than the average Bundesliga club. A 98th-percentile creator in Germany is not automatically a 98th-percentile creator in England. But the profile is the point. Raum combines Dorgu's chance creation with passing range that none of United's options has shown this season.

There's also the team context. United are 4th in the Premier League on our ratings and 8th in the world, at 1671, but they've taken 1.00 point a game from performances worth 1.67. That's 4.7 points below what they've deserved, which says the underlying team is better than the table. A left-back who turns pressure into chances is exactly the kind of signing that helps a team like that convert good performances into results.

What he'd bring, in plain terms

Three things. First, a reliable supply of chances from the left: crosses, cut-backs and progressive passes, every week, for six years running. Second, experience. He's 28, Leipzig's captain and a Germany international, so this wouldn't be a project. Third, a left foot on the left side, which United have often lacked when Shaw has been out.

And three risks. First, the duel numbers, which suggest a better right winger can go past him. Second, the jump from a league our model rates weaker to the toughest league on our scale. Third, age: 28 is the peak for a full-back, but the deal makes most sense as a three-season signing, not a long-term one.

Our verdict

Fit: strong. Risk: moderate. On the creative side, Raum is as close to a sure thing as full-backs get. Six seasons in the Bundesliga's top 4% for expected assists is not a fluke, and the system fit with United's 4-2-3-1 is natural. The risk is defensive. United would need to protect him, with a left-sided centre-back who covers the channel and a midfielder who shifts across, or accept that some opponents will target him. If the reported price is anywhere near accurate for a player with six months left on his contract, it's the kind of deal that makes sense: an experienced, consistent creator for a problem position, without a big long-term commitment.

What would change our mind? Two things to watch before January. If his duel percentages stay in the bottom third over a bigger sample, the defensive concern hardens. And if Leipzig's creating dries up around him, we'd want to know whether it's him or them. For now, the numbers say United have picked a sensible target.