Ratings and world ranks in this piece come from before our 25 October 2026 ranking update. Current figures are on each club's page.
The short answerInter are rated the best team in Serie A and 15th in our world ranking, so they start as clear favourites at San Siro. Fiorentina are 18th but rated 13th: their chances deserved about 9 points, not four, and they finished below their numbers last season too.
There is a version of this fixture that looks like a mismatch, and the table tells it. Inter are top of Serie A on 19 points from seven games, level with Lazio and ahead on goal difference. Fiorentina are 18th with four points, one win, one draw and five defeats. Sunday lunchtime at San Siro, kick-off 11:30 UK time, Maurizio Mariani refereeing. Top against third-bottom.
The Beaumont Index agrees with half of that. Inter are rated 1625, the best side in Italy by some distance and 15th in the Index world ranking of 3,848 clubs. The surprise is Fiorentina. On rating they are 13th of 20, not 18th. That is no great compliment, but it is a long way from relegation form. The gap between those two numbers is the story of their season, and it is the part of this game worth watching.
Fiorentina: a bad season, made to look worse
Start with the number. Paolo Vanoli's side have created chances worth about 8.9 points in seven league games. They have four. That shortfall of 4.9 points is the fourth-biggest in Serie A, behind Monza, Bologna and Juventus. And this is not new. Last season they finished 6.4 points below what their chances deserved. One bad-luck season is noise. Two in a row makes you ask whether something else is going on: finishing, goalkeeping, or the habit of conceding the one chance that matters.
The individual games make the case better than the totals. Fiorentina lost 3-0 at home to Frosinone while creating 2.95 expected goals to 1.37. They lost 2-1 at home to Torino with 1.67 to 0.83. Last weekend they lost 3-1 at home to Como, a game in which they created 2.66, though Como created more. Over the season they have out-created their opponent in three of seven games and won only one of those, the 4-2 at Venezia.
They are not blameless. The 4-0 defeat at Roma was exactly what it looked like: 0.40 expected goals to 3.13. And the shape keeps changing. The match data record three different shapes in seven league games: a 4-1-4-1, a 4-3-3 and the 4-2-3-1 that started against Como. That is a coach still looking for a team. Against Como it was David de Gea in goal; Pietro Pongračić and Radu Drăgușin in the middle of defence; Nicolò Fagioli and Cher Ndour in front of them; Franco Mastantuono, Pote and Njie behind Pellegrino up front.
Over the whole season Fiorentina are averaging 1.90 expected goals a game and conceding 1.84. Last season those figures were 1.43 and 1.50. They create a little more than they used to and give away a little more too. That is the profile of a mid-table side having a miserable run, not of a side that deserves to be 18th.
Inter: the same shape, more of everything
Cristian Chivu's Inter are the opposite of all that uncertainty. The match data record a 3-5-2 in every one of their seven league games. The names change a little. The shape does not. The side that won 3-1 at Bologna last Saturday read: Josep Martínez; Yann Bisseck, Manuel Akanji, Alessandro Bastoni; Luis Henrique, Nicolò Barella, Piotr Zieliński, Petar Sučić, Federico Dimarco; Marcus Thuram and Francesco Pio Esposito. Thuram, Carlos Augusto and Bonny scored.
The 4-0 defeat at Roma was exactly what it looked like: 0.40 expected goals to 3.13.
What has changed is volume. Inter are creating 3.22 expected goals a game in the league this season, up from 2.04 last season. That is a huge jump, and you can see it game by game: 4.25 in a 1-0 win at Cagliari, 3.51 at Bologna, a 5-3 against Udinese. They have scored 21 league goals, three a game.
The cost is at the other end. Inter have conceded nine league goals and are giving up 1.4 expected goals a game, up from 0.99 last season. Napoli created 2.63 at San Siro and still lost 3-2. The only points Inter have dropped were in a 2-2 at Roma. In Europe the same openness cost them: a 4-3 home defeat by Club Brugge on 13 October. On Wednesday they tightened up and beat Shakhtar 1-0.
Inter also tend to finish ahead of their numbers. They are +3.4 points above what their chances deserved this season and were +4.3 last season. Two seasons running is a pattern, not luck, and the obvious explanation is up front. Thuram and Lautaro Martínez have four league goals each, and Inter have strikers who turn half-chances into goals.
The history: Inter's fixture, with one bad memory
Inter have won four of the last six league meetings, drawn one and lost one. The most recent was a 1-1 in Florence in March. Before that, Inter won 3-0 at San Siro last October. The defeat came in February 2025, a 3-0 in Florence that still sits oddly in this record, followed four days later by a 2-1 Inter win in Milan. Go back to September 2023 and it was 4-0 to Inter at San Siro.
Head-to-head records are a weak guide in football. Players change, coaches change and six games is a tiny sample. But they do tell you what each club expects walking out, and Inter expect to win this one.
Where this is decided
Look at the flanks. Inter's 3-5-2 gets much of its width from Dimarco on the left and Luis Henrique on the right, and Fiorentina's full-backs have to decide whether to step out to them or hold the line. Inter's two strikers also make sure a back four always has two bodies to worry about. If Fiorentina line up in a back four again, they must keep Thuram and Esposito apart, or Lautaro if he starts, without leaving Barella and Sučić room to run beyond them.
For Fiorentina the route is the one that has nearly worked all season: get the ball to Mastantuono and the runners behind him, and make the chances count. They do create. The question all season has been the last touch, at both ends. Inter's defence has looked beatable lately. Brugge scored four, Napoli two, Udinese three. This is not the San Siro fortress of other seasons.
There is fatigue to think about too. Inter played on Wednesday night in Europe and kick off before lunchtime on Sunday. Chivu has rotated within the same shape all season, and that fixed system makes rotation cheaper: a fresh wing-back slots into a role he already knows.
The verdict
In rating terms the gap is 208 points, worth a little over a goal a game on neutral ground, and this game is not on neutral ground. By the Index Inter are clearly the better team, at home, against a side that keeps losing. Nobody needs a model to say that.
What the model adds is a warning against reading Fiorentina as a relegation side. Their underlying numbers are those of a team in the bottom half of the middle, unlucky for two seasons running, playing in an unsettled shape. Teams like that do not usually stay 18th. If the turn comes, it will come in games where they create enough and finally take it. Sunday is a hard place to start, but the numbers say Fiorentina are better than their four points.
FAQ
What time is Inter v Fiorentina?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:30 UK time, at San Siro. The referee is Maurizio Mariani.
Are Fiorentina as bad as their league position?
No. They are 18th with four points, but the chances they have created and conceded deserved about 8.9 points, and the Index rates them 13th of 20 in Serie A.
What is Inter's record against Fiorentina?
Inter have won four of the last six league meetings, with one draw and one defeat. The most recent was 1-1 in Florence in March 2026.