J1's luck story: Sanfrecce deserve more, Kashima's run is over

Ratings and world ranks in this piece come from before our 25 October 2026 ranking update. Current figures are on each club's page.

The short answerSanfrecce Hiroshima are Japan's highest-rated club and have the best underlying numbers in J1, but are a point off the top and short of what their chances deserve. Kashima won the 2025 title far ahead of their chances. This season their luck has evened out, and they are eighth.

Twelve rounds into Japan's first autumn-to-spring J1 season, FC Machida Zelvia and FC Tokyo lead on 27 points, with Sanfrecce Hiroshima a point behind. The Beaumont Index has a clear view on who the best team in that group is. It is Sanfrecce, rated 1390 and 132nd in our world ranking, the highest-rated club in the country. They also have the best underlying numbers in the league this season, and fewer points than those numbers deserve.

At the other end of the luck story are Kashima Antlers, champions of the 2025 J1 season and runners-up in the one-off spring competition. On our numbers they have been the most fortunate big club in Japan over the past year and a half. This season, for the first time in a while, their results look roughly like their football, and they are eighth.

A note before the numbers. In Japan, our expected-points figures come from each club's season-long average chance quality, not from match-by-match shot data. They are a good guide to who is creating and conceding the better chances, but they are rougher than the figures we use for Europe's top leagues, especially after only 12 games. Treat the sizes below as indicative and the direction as the story.

Sanfrecce: the best team, a point off the top

Sanfrecce have 26 points from 12 games: eight wins, two draws and two defeats, with 29 goals scored and only 10 conceded. That is excellent. Our estimate says their football has been worth about 31 points, the highest expected total in the league, so they are around 5 points short of what their chances deserve. With the same luck as Machida, who have exactly the points their chances suggest, Sanfrecce would be top.

The pattern is not new. Across the 2025 season and the spring 2026 transition season, which we treat as one long campaign of 58 games, Sanfrecce finished about 11 points below their expected total. In 2024 they were close to fair, +1.9. A club that keeps creating more than it converts, or keeps conceding goals its defence should not, has sometimes found a structural flaw. More often it has been unlucky in the finishing at both ends, and the gap closes.

Our ratings are built to look through that kind of noise, and they rate Sanfrecce clearly above the rest. They are rated as rising. Their margin over Machida, the current leaders, is 32 rating points, worth about 0.18 of a goal a game. In a 38-round season with 26 still to play, that is a real edge.

Kashima: the champions whose luck has turned

Kashima won the 2025 J1 title on the final day, their ninth league title and first in nine years, under coach Toru Oniki. Leo Ceará finished as the league's top scorer with 21 goals. In June they reached the final of the one-off 100 Year Vision League, the spring competition that bridged the move to an autumn calendar, and lost 5-2 on aggregate to Vissel Kobe.

A club that keeps creating more than it converts, or keeps conceding goals its defence should not, has sometimes found a structural flaw.

It was a remarkable 18 months, and on our numbers it came with an enormous amount of help. Across those 56 league games, Kashima took about 119 points from football that our estimate values at about 83. That surplus of around 36 points is the biggest in Japan for that period by a distance. Some of it is genuine skill that a season-average model misses: a striker like Leo Ceará turns half-chances into goals, and a team that wins tight games late is doing something right. But no club sustains a gap that size for long.

The decline has arrived. Kashima have 20 points from 12 games this season, sixth on rating but eighth in the table. Their results are now almost exactly in line with their chances, +0.9 on our estimate. Nothing about their football has collapsed. What has gone is the surplus, and without it, Kashima are a good side in a crowded group rather than the team that always finds a way.

The rest of the top group

Machida are the most honest leaders you could ask for. Their 27 points match their expected total almost exactly. They are rated second in Japan and rising, and their 30 goals scored and 10 conceded are the best goal difference in the league. If Sanfrecce are the best team, Machida are the closest challenger, and nothing in their numbers suggests a fall is coming.

FC Tokyo, level with Machida on 27 points after Sunday's games, are rated third in Japan and rising, with results in line with their chances. Kashiwa Reysol, the 2025 runners-up, have 25 points and are the one leading club whose results are clearly ahead of their football: about 3 points on our estimate. They are worth watching for a slide.

Vissel Kobe, the spring champions, are fifth on 23 points with results bang in line with their chances. They also ran ahead of their expected points in the 2025 and spring 2026 period, by about 9 points, a smaller version of the Kashima story.

The unluckiest club in Japan is in the drop zone

The biggest gap in the league is at the bottom. Avispa Fukuoka have 7 points from 12 games and sit 19th, inside the three relegation places. Our estimate says their football has been worth about 16 points, which would put them comfortably mid-table. That shortfall of about 9 points is the largest in J1. Shimizu S-Pulse, 13th on 14 points, are also well short of their chances.

The fortunate clubs are further from the spotlight. Urawa Red Diamonds and Kawasaki Frontale both have around four points more than their chances suggest. Neither is in the title race, but both are sitting a little higher than their football deserves. With three relegation places and a long winter break to come, Fukuoka's numbers suggest they are better than their position, though that only helps if the points start to arrive.

What it means for the season

There are 26 rounds left, and the J1 title will not be decided until 2027. The Index does not make predictions, but it does say where the evidence points. Sanfrecce have been the best team in Japan on underlying performance for most of the past two years, and they have repeatedly finished with fewer points than that performance deserved. If their luck merely evens out, they should be the team to beat.

Kashima are the opposite case. Their title was real and their football was good, but the margin by which their results outran their chances was extraordinary. This season they are being paid exactly what they earn, and that leaves them eighth. Neither club has changed much. The luck has.

The same lesson runs through every league we measure. A big gap between results and performance is usually temporary, and the clubs on either side of it tend to drift back. In Europe this autumn the clearest examples are Viking and Nottingham Forest. In Japan, they are Kashima and Sanfrecce.