Viking, Lazio and Forest: Europe's luckiest and unluckiest teams

Ratings and world ranks in this piece come from before our 25 October 2026 ranking update. Current figures are on each club's page.

The short answerThe luckiest team in our eight launch leagues is Viking, about ten points ahead of what their performances deserved, with Lazio close behind. The unluckiest is Nottingham Forest, nearly nine points short. Manchester City have dropped out of the lucky ten after losing at Aston Villa.

Luck is football's least popular explanation, and probably its most underrated one. Nobody wants to hear that their side is top because the ball has bounced kindly, or bottom for the opposite reason. So we have done the decent thing again and put it all in a list, now updated with every result to 25 October 2026.

The method is unchanged. For every club in our eight launch leagues, the Index compares the points they have actually won with the points their performances would normally earn. The bigger the gap, the more luck, good or bad, is involved. One health warning: the leagues are at different stages. Norway is 23 or 24 games in, the Championship 12, and the Bundesliga only 6 or 7. Small samples swing more.

Most clubs are not on these lists. Of the 154 clubs we measured, 83, more than half, are within three points of what their performances deserved. The twenty below are the outliers.

What has changed

Viking still top the lucky list, about 10 points ahead of their performances, but the margin has shrunk. Lazio are now second, only about a point behind, and Stoke City third. At the other end, Nottingham Forest remain the unluckiest club we measure, nearly nine points short of what their football has earned.

The biggest change is who has dropped off. Manchester City were on the lucky list last time. Since then they have lost 2-1 at Aston Villa, and their surplus has fallen to +5.7, now 13th among the 154 clubs. That is what luck catching up looks like: City are still rated 1733, with the second-best expected points rate in the Premier League, but the results are coming back towards the performances. Swansea City, who led the Championship on points per game, have dropped out too. Atlético Madrid and Blackburn Rovers come in. On the unlucky side, Cardiff City drop off and Willem II arrive.

The lucky ten

1. Viking (Eliteserien), +10.3. Level with Bodø/Glimt on 56 points at the top of Norway, with a game in hand, but their football has been worth 1.99 points a game against an actual 2.44. Still the most fortunate club we measure, though Lazio have closed to within about a point.
2. Lazio (Serie A), +9.2. Top of Serie A on points per game (2.75), 9th on expected points (1.60). Rated as rising, which softens it a little, but this is the biggest gap in Italy.
3. Stoke City (Championship), +8.3. 1.67 points per game from football worth 0.98, the 21st-best expected rate in the Championship. The Index has them 18th of 24.
4. Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie), +8.0. 1.67 points per game from football worth 0.78. Still on this list from our first run.
5. Lillestrøm (Eliteserien), +7.1. 1.56 points a game from football worth 1.26, and rated as falling. One of three Norwegian entries.
6. Atlético Madrid (LaLiga), +6.7. New to the list. 2.50 points a game, second-best in Spain, from football worth 1.83. Rated 1602, the best team on either list.
7. Real Betis (LaLiga), +6.4. 2.11 points per game from performances worth 1.40.
8. Fredrikstad (Eliteserien), +6.2. 1.26 points per game from football worth 0.99, and falling. The third Norwegian club.
9. Lecce (Serie A), +6.0. The lowest-rated side in Serie A on the Index, with the 20th-best expected rate (0.43), yet 1.29 points a game.
10. Blackburn Rovers (Championship), +5.9. New to the list. 1.50 points a game from football worth 1.01, the 20th-best expected rate in the Championship.

The unlucky ten

1. Nottingham Forest (Premier League), −8.7. 0.75 points per game from football worth 1.83, the 4th-best expected rate in the Premier League. Rated 1583 and rising.
2. Preston North End (Championship), −8.1. Bottom of the Championship on points per game (0.42), with football worth 1.09. Unlucky, but also rated as falling.
3. Brann (Eliteserien), −7.8. 1.26 points a game from football worth 1.60, the 5th-best rate in Norway. Norway gives with one hand and takes with the other.
4. Willem II (Eredivisie), −7.5. New to the list. Bottom of the Eredivisie on 0.20 points a game, from football worth 0.95. Last season they were nearly 14 points ahead of their performances.
5. Athletic Club (LaLiga), −7.2. The 3rd-best expected rate in LaLiga (2.03) and 1.12 points a game to show for it. About 12 points short last season too.
6. Villarreal (LaLiga), −7.0. 4th in Spain on the Index, 9th on points per game. Performances worth 1.90, results worth 1.20.
7. Monza (Serie A), −6.9. 0.88 points per game from performances worth 1.74, and rated as rising.
8. Start (Eliteserien), −6.8. 0.70 points a game, bottom of Norway, from football worth 0.99. Not good, but not this bad.
9. Sunderland (Premier League), −6.8. Bottom of the Premier League on points per game (0.57), 9th on expected points. Rated 1563 on the Index.
10. Brest (Ligue 1), −6.6. The 2nd-best expected rate in Ligue 1 (1.95), 1.12 points a game. Rated as rising.

Viking and the Norwegian title race

Viking's case is the most interesting on the list, because it is a title race. They are level with Bodø/Glimt on 56 points at the top of the Eliteserien, with a game in hand after Glimt lost 1-0 at home to Vålerenga on Saturday. Their goal difference is the same. But on our numbers, Viking's football has been worth about 1.99 points a game, well short of the 2.44 they are taking. They were also well ahead of their performances last season. Luck does not usually last two years, so this is a club to watch closely in the run-in.

Good teams on the wrong list

The unlucky list is not a list of bad teams. Four of the ten are rated above 1500, the level of an average club from Europe's top five leagues: Nottingham Forest (1583), Athletic Club (1504), Villarreal (1545) and Sunderland (1563). Forest are the starkest case. Their performances have been worth more points per game than all but three Premier League sides, and they have collected fewer than all but two. That is not a team playing badly. It is a team losing games it is playing well enough to win, and the Index rates them as rising.

Since then they have lost 2-1 at Aston Villa, and their surplus has fallen to +5.7, now 13th among the 154 clubs.

Villarreal are the same story in Spain. On the Index they are the 4th-best side in LaLiga, behind only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid, with the 4th-best expected points. Their results are 9th-best. A gap of about seven points in ten games almost always narrows. Athletic Club are the third Spanish case, and the unluckiest club in LaLiga for the second season running.

On the lucky side, the best team on either list is now Atlético Madrid, rated 1602. Their luck is real, but like City's before it, it is luck on top of a very good team.

Which league is luckiest?

Serie A, still. Across the division the average gap between results and performances, in either direction, is about 4.3 points per club after only seven or eight games. The Eliteserien is next at about 3.8, but Norway has played three times as many games, so its gaps have had far longer to build. Game for game, Italy is the noisiest league we measure. The calmest is the Bundesliga, at about 2.1 per club, partly because it is only six or seven games in.

Near misses

On the lucky side, just outside the ten: Real Sociedad (+5.8), Frosinone (+5.7), Manchester City (+5.7), Lille (+5.5) and Arsenal (+5.3). Both Manchester City and Arsenal are there, so the top two in the Premier League are each about five points ahead of their football. On the unlucky side: Cardiff City (−6.6), Juventus (−5.9), Espanyol (−5.7), Fiorentina (−4.9) and Bournemouth (−4.9).

Does luck carry over?

Here is the most useful number in this piece. We compared every measured club's gap this season with its gap last season. The correlation is about 0.03, essentially zero. Knowing how lucky a club was last season tells you almost nothing about how lucky it will be this season. Sunderland were nearly twelve points ahead last season and are nearly seven behind now. Willem II were nearly fourteen ahead and are now bottom of the Eredivisie, seven and a half short. Luck is not a trait. It is weather.

What it means

A list like this is not a prediction, but it is a hint. Gaps of this size usually close, in both directions, and City have just shown how quickly it can happen. If your club is on the first list, enjoy it and do not book the parade. If your club is on the second, the football is better than it feels, and for Forest, Villarreal and Athletic in particular, the underlying level is high. We will keep rerunning this list and tell you honestly who regressed.