The short answerJuventus and Napoli meet on Sunday with 14 points each, eleven behind the leaders, and Italy is calling it a meeting of the two great disappointments. The Beaumont Index does not see two equal crises. Juventus are the third-best side in Serie A on performance and among the most unlucky; Napoli are seventh, and the luck that ran their way for two straight seasons, including the 2024-25 title, has turned. One of these clubs has a results problem. The other has a football problem.
The table makes this look like a coin toss between two sides in the same hole. Juventus have four wins, two draws and three defeats, with 11 goals scored and 10 conceded. Napoli have the same record in wins, draws and defeats, with 17 scored and 11 conceded. Juventus lost 2-0 at Genoa on Wednesday; Napoli won 4-1 at Monza. Juventus have their lowest points total after nine games since 2022-23, and Luciano Spalletti took his squad into a training retreat before the game.
Look underneath and the two clubs are going in opposite directions.
Two clubs, two different problems
Our ratings use expected points: what a team's chances for and against would usually be worth, shot by shot. After eight Serie A games, Juventus had 14 points from chances worth about 18. That shortfall of more than four points is one of the largest in the league. Only Roma and Inter have produced chances worth more points this season, and Juventus's 18.3 expected points sit fractionally behind Inter's 18.4.
Napoli had 11 points from chances worth about 14 after eight games, a shortfall of about three. They have also been unlucky, but from a much lower starting point. Their underlying performance is that of a mid-table side with good players, not a title challenger.
On our opponent-adjusted world ranking, Juventus are 24th in the world and third in Italy, behind only Inter and Roma. Napoli are 50th in the world and seventh in Italy. The gap between them is about 85 rating points, a little under half a goal per 90 minutes on a neutral pitch. That is about the same as the gap between Manchester City and Brighton, and Juventus are at home.
Napoli's two lucky years
The most striking number in this fixture is not from this season. It is from the two before.
In 2024-25, Napoli won the Scudetto with 82 points. Their chances that season were worth about 71. In 2025-26 they took 76 points from chances worth about 63, a surplus of more than 12. Two seasons in a row, Napoli finished more than ten points above what their football usually earns. That is very rare at the top of a major league. It usually reflects a mix of finishing, goalkeeping, game management and fortune, and the fortune part rarely lasts.
On our opponent-adjusted world ranking, Juventus are 24th in the world and third in Italy, behind only Inter and Roma.
This season the surplus has gone. Napoli are about three points short of their expected total after eight games. The swing from last season to this is close to 16 points over a full campaign's pace. Part of the problem in Naples is that the football has not got worse so much as the results have stopped flattering it.
It is worth being careful about what that means. A surplus of this size does not prove a team was bad; Napoli were a very good side in both seasons, and part of any surplus is quality the shot data cannot fully see, such as elite goalkeeping or finishing. But when the gap is that large for that long, history says it tends to close, and it has closed quickly. Expectations in Naples were set by the table, not by the chances, and that is a hard place to manage a squad from.
Juventus are the mirror image. In 2024-25 they finished almost exactly on their expected total. In 2025-26 they were about six and a half points short. This season they are more than four short after eight games. Two years running, Juventus have played better than their points.
What the squads look like
Our pillars break each club's strength into parts, ranked within Serie A.
Juventus rank in the 80th percentile for the strength of their first XI and the 92nd for squad depth. Their lifecycle pillar, which reflects squad age and where key players are in their careers, is in the 60th percentile. Star spread, how widely quality is shared through the side, is in the 55th. It is a deep, balanced squad.
Napoli's profile is far more uneven. Their first XI ranks only in the 25th percentile in Serie A on our measure, and depth in the 38th. Their strongest pillar is star spread, in the 85th percentile, and their manager pillar is in the 75th. The weak spot is lifecycle, in the 8th percentile, the clearest sign of an ageing squad. Their style data agrees: Napoli's minutes-weighted squad age is about 1.7 standard deviations above the Serie A average.
That age profile shapes how they play. Relative to the league, Napoli are near the bottom for defensive activity, measured as possession-adjusted interceptions, and for directness, the share of long balls. They play a slower, more controlled game and do not win the ball back often. League figures also show they complete the fewest dribbles per game in Serie A. Juventus, by contrast, rank near the top of the league for dribbling, for touches in the opposition box and for shot volume, each about two standard deviations above the average. They also concede the fewest shots on target per game in the league.
On paper, this is a high-volume attacking side with a tight defence against an older, slower team that controls possession but struggles to press.
The coaching subplot
The dugouts add a layer. Spalletti won the 2022-23 title at Napoli. Massimiliano Allegri, now at Napoli, won five straight titles with Juventus across two spells. Allegri is suspended for Sunday, so his assistant Giovanni Landucci is expected to take the touchline. The two coaches have met 16 times in official games: six wins for Spalletti, five for Allegri and five draws.
Our manager pillar does not have a current value for Juventus in our latest run, so we will not compare the two coaches on our numbers. What we can say is that the squads they are working with point in different directions: Spalletti has the deeper and better-performing group, Allegri the older one with a stronger spread of quality.
What Sunday decides
Both clubs are 11 points behind Inter and Lazio after nine games. Neither is out of the title race in theory, but on our numbers only one of them has the underlying level to make a serious run.
For Juventus, the stakes are about turning performance into points. They have been the third-best side in Italy on chances, and a win would put them within a point or so of Milan, depending on the derby result, and closer to the Champions League places. If their luck evens out over the rest of the season, they should climb.
For Napoli, the stakes are about whether this season is a dip or a reset. Their underlying level is that of a top-eight side, not a champion. A win in Turin would be a good result, but it would not change that picture on its own.
The European picture matters too. Fourth-placed Como are on 20 points and rated fourth in Italy on performance. Milan are fifth on 18 before Saturday's derby. Lazio's 25 points rest on the biggest surplus over expected points in the league. If Lazio fall back, Juventus are the club best placed on our numbers to take advantage.
How the game tends to go on these numbers
Juventus are at home and stronger on our ratings, by a little under half a goal per 90 minutes before home advantage. That makes them favourites. Their shot volume and box presence should give them the territory, and their defensive record means Napoli may find chances hard to come by. Napoli have not scored at Juventus in their last three visits.
Napoli's best route is through the quality they do have. Kevin De Bruyne has four league goals this season, and Napoli have scored at least three goals in three of their last four league games. They can still punish a side that leaves space. The danger for Juventus is the same thing that has cost them points all season: creating plenty and not finishing it.
Why this matters beyond Italy
The Beaumont Index puts every club on one scale. On that scale, Juventus at 24th in the world are a solid Champions League-level side with poor results. Napoli at 50th are closer to a good Europa League side. That is a big change for a club that won the title 18 months ago, and it is one the table has not fully shown yet, because both clubs have the same points.
It is a useful reminder that the table after nine games can put very different teams side by side. One of these clubs should rise. The other may already be where it belongs.
What we'll be watching
- Juventus's chance conversion. They have created enough to be third in Italy. If they finish at a normal rate, they should win.
- Napoli's press. An older squad with low defensive activity will struggle if Juventus move the ball quickly. Watch whether Napoli sit deep or try to win it high.
- The other results. Milan v Inter on Saturday and Lazio v Cagliari on Sunday afternoon will change what a win in Turin is worth for both sides.
Juventus and Napoli are level on points. On the Index, they are not level on anything else.
Figures: club ratings, ranks, expected points, pillars and style data come from the Beaumont Index model, with results to 25 October 2026 (eight Serie A games). Table and results after nine games, as of 31 October 2026. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November, 19:45 UK, 20:45 in Turin.
FAQ
Who is the better team on the Beaumont Index, Juventus or Napoli?
Juventus, by a little under half a goal per 90 minutes. Juventus are third in Italy and 24th in the world; Napoli are seventh and 50th.
Have Napoli been unlucky this season?
A little, about three points short of their expected total after eight games. The bigger story is that they finished more than ten points above it in each of the previous two seasons.
Why are Juventus only on 14 points?
Their chances have been worth about 18 points after eight games, among the best in Serie A, but they have not converted them.
When is Juventus v Napoli?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 19:45 UK time, 20:45 in Turin.