The short answerFiorentina are 18th in Serie A on five points; Frosinone sixth on 16. Before Thursday's games, our ratings had Fiorentina tenth in the league on performance and Frosinone 16th. Fiorentina's chances were worth about five points more than they had; Frosinone's about six fewer. Fiorentina are rated about 0.47 goals per 90 better.
Two results on Thursday pushed these clubs further apart. Fiorentina drew 2-2 at home to Atalanta, their eighth Serie A home game in a row without a win, and stayed 18th on five points. Frosinone beat Lecce 5-1 and climbed to sixth on 16 points, one behind Milan.
If you only read the table, one club is in a relegation fight and the other is chasing Europe in its first season back in Serie A. Our ratings say the table has these two the wrong way round. Fiorentina are the better team, by a clear margin, and Frosinone's points are running far ahead of their football. This piece explains how big the gap is, why it has opened, and what three seasons of data say about how these stories usually end.
The ratings
Fiorentina are rated 1498, 92nd in the world and tenth in Serie A on performance. Frosinone are rated 1411, 171st in the world and 16th in Serie A. The gap is about 0.47 goals per 90 minutes in Fiorentina's favour. On our scale that is a clear difference, roughly the distance between a mid-table side and one near the bottom.
We publish uncertainty with every rating, and it is worth being honest about it here. Our 80% range for Fiorentina runs from 52nd to 154th in the world; for Frosinone from 101st to 296th. The ranges overlap, which is normal after seven or eight games. But Fiorentina's central estimate sits above the top of Frosinone's range for most of its width, and the direction is not in doubt.
Both clubs, on our numbers, play at the level of a strong second-tier European league rather than a top-five league. That is not unusual for the lower half of Serie A, which ranks fifth among Europe's leagues on our measure, behind the Premier League, LaLiga, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1.
Where the points went
For every team we estimate how many points its chances for and against would usually earn. Before Thursday, after seven games each, Fiorentina had four points from chances that would usually earn about 9. Frosinone had 13 from chances worth about 7.
Those are big gaps for seven games. In Serie A, only Monza and Juventus were further below their chances than Fiorentina. Only Lazio and Lecce were further above theirs than Frosinone. Put per game, Fiorentina's chances rank 11th in the league, a mid-table side. Frosinone's rank 14th. Neither club is creating or conceding like a team in its current league position.
Both clubs, on our numbers, play at the level of a strong second-tier European league rather than a top-five league.
The schedule does not explain it either. Fiorentina's opponents have been very slightly tougher than the league average. Frosinone's have been somewhat easier, which flatters their record a little rather than hurting it.
Thursday, read through the numbers
Thursday's results did not change the picture; they illustrated it.
Fiorentina fell behind to Charles De Ketelaere's goal four minutes before half-time, came back through Alieu Njie's header in the 53rd minute and led through João Mário's deflected long-range shot in the 61st. Nicola Zalewski equalised in the 74th minute, and David De Gea had to save from De Ketelaere late on to keep the point. Fiorentina had chances to win it early and did not take them. A home draw from a winning position is what their season has looked like in miniature.
Frosinone scored five against Lecce: Matteo Cichella, a Giacomo Calò penalty just before half-time, Antonio Raimondo with his ninth league goal of the season, and two from substitute Daniel Bîrligea, the second in stoppage time. It was an emphatic win. It also came against the side our ratings place 19th of 20 in Serie A on performance. A five-goal night against the league's second-weakest team is exactly the kind of result that keeps a team's points ahead of its chances.
Our ratings will absorb both games in the next run. One game will not close a gap built over seven.
The three-season pattern
The most revealing numbers in this piece go back further than this season.
In 2024-25, Fiorentina won 65 points, about nine more than their chances usually earn. That season looked like a club on the rise. Last season they won 42, about six fewer than their chances. This season they are about five short again. In two years Fiorentina have gone from well ahead of their chances to well behind them, and the reputation of the club has moved with the points rather than with the football.
Frosinone's swing is even larger. In Serie B in 2024-25 they won 43 points, about 13 fewer than their chances. Last season they won promotion with 81 points, about 15 more than their chances. Over a full 38-game season, that is a very large gap. And this season, in Serie A, they are about six ahead again.
There are two ways to read Frosinone's last two seasons. One is that something real changed: a coach, a style, a group of finishers who keep scoring more than their chances suggest. The other is that a team that won promotion on a large run of good fortune has carried some of it into the top flight. Our ratings are built on the second reading until the evidence forces them off it.
The squads
Our squad profile adds a second line of evidence, and it points the same way as the ratings.
Fiorentina's usual starting eleven is in the 75th percentile of Serie A: the eleven they put out most weeks is better than three-quarters of the league's. That is not a relegation squad. Their weaknesses are elsewhere. Their depth is in the 20th percentile, so injuries and rotation hurt more than they would at most clubs. Their star spread is in the fifth percentile, which means their quality is concentrated in a very small number of players. And on our measure of how a team has performed under its current coach compared with what its squad suggested, they are in the 12th percentile in Serie A and among the lowest in our global data.
Frosinone are the mirror image. Their usual first eleven is in the 25th percentile of the league, which fits a newly promoted side. But on the coach measure they are in the 71st percentile. Massimiliano Alvini's side is getting more from its squad than the squad's quality would suggest.
Put together, the profile describes a talented Fiorentina eleven that is under-performing its coach, its depth and its luck at the same time, and a modest Frosinone squad that is well coached and very fortunate. The first of those problems is fixable. The second advantage is real but limited.
How Frosinone play
Frosinone are not passive, and it would be wrong to describe their season as all luck. Compared with the rest of Serie A, they are very high for dribbling, for touches in the opponent's box and for shot volume. They attack in numbers, carry the ball and shoot often. That is a brave way for a promoted side to play, and it makes them entertaining.
What our numbers say is that, so far, those shots have been turned into goals, and the shots against them kept out, at a rate their chances rarely sustain. A side that shoots a lot from average positions will always produce some big scorelines, like Thursday's. The question is whether it produces enough points on the nights when the finishing is normal.
Not the only ones
Fiorentina and Frosinone are the clearest pair, but they are not alone, and the rest of the league helps put them in context. Lazio top our list of clubs running ahead of their chances: 22 points from chances worth about 13 before Thursday, after finishing about six ahead last season too. Juventus are the other way: 11 points from chances worth about 17, after finishing about six and a half short last season. Two seasons in the same direction is where the argument about skill starts, at either end of the table.
Fiorentina do not fit that two-season pattern cleanly, because two seasons ago they were well ahead. Frosinone do not fit it either, because two seasons ago they were well behind, in Serie B. What both clubs show instead is how quickly the gap between points and chances can swing, and how much of a club's reputation rides on it.
What would make the table right
There are real ways the table could be closer to the truth than our ratings. If Fiorentina's lack of depth and reliance on a few players is the real story, their performances may fall to match their results as the season wears on. If Frosinone's finishing is a genuine skill, carried over from their promotion season, our ratings will be too slow to credit it. And seven or eight games is a small sample for any conclusion.
We think the weight of evidence is on the other side. Fiorentina's chances, their first eleven and their rating all point to a mid-table team. Frosinone's chances, their first eleven and their rating all point to a side near the bottom half. Only the points disagree.
What to watch
For Fiorentina, the key number is not points but chances. If they keep creating and conceding like a mid-table side, the points should follow; if their chances start to fall, the problem is deeper than luck. For Frosinone, the test is the next run of games against stronger opponents, where five-goal nights are rarer.
Our ratings treat chances, not points, as the better guide to what comes next. If that holds here, Fiorentina have more in them than 18th, and Frosinone are more likely to drift towards mid-table than stay in the European places. We will come back to both clubs after the next round of fixtures and say whether that reading is holding up.
See the full Serie A ratings.
FAQ
Where are Fiorentina in Serie A?
18th on five points after a 2-2 draw with Atalanta on 29 October. On performance, our ratings had them tenth before that game.
Are Frosinone for real?
They are sixth on 16 points after beating Lecce 5-1. Before that game our ratings had them 16th on performance, with points well ahead of their chances.
Who is rated higher, Fiorentina or Frosinone?
Fiorentina: 92nd in the world against Frosinone's 171st, a gap of about 0.47 goals per 90 minutes.