Barcelona v Aston Villa: Europe's form team, England's worst football

The short answerBarcelona are first in our world club ranking on 1914; Aston Villa are 14th on 1726, about a goal a game worse. Villa are perfect in the Champions League, but in the Premier League their football is last on deserved points, and their 12 points are 4.9 more than it earned.

Aston Villa arrive at the Camp Nou with a perfect Champions League record, nine points from three games and second place in the league phase. Barcelona are eighth, beaten 4-2 in Paris last time out. On the competition table, the visitors are the form team. Our numbers tell a different and much less comfortable story for Villa, and it starts at home.

In the Premier League, Aston Villa have the worst underlying football of any of the 20 clubs. Their chances created and allowed this season deserved about 7.1 points from nine games. They have 12. Only two clubs in England are further ahead of their own football, and no club is lower on deserved points. Villa are tenth in the real table and 20th in the one that ignores luck.

That matters tonight because the team Villa are visiting is the opposite case. Barcelona are first in our world club ranking on 1914, first in LaLiga on deserved points, and their points total matches their football almost exactly. The gap between the clubs is 188 rating points. On our scale, where about 180 points is worth a goal a game, that is roughly 1.0 goals per match. Villa's European run is real, and nothing here takes away the nine points. But they are coming into this game on results that their domestic football has not been producing.

Second in Europe, last in England on the football

Start with how Villa can be 14th in the world on 1726 and last in the Premier League on deserved points at the same time. The answer is that our rating is not a snapshot of nine league games. It carries a club's longer record, it counts continental results towards its own rating, and it adjusts for the strength of every opponent. Villa's recent seasons were very strong, they have beaten everyone put in front of them in Europe this autumn, and they have faced the 7th-hardest league schedule in England. All of that holds the rating up.

What the rating cannot do is ignore the direction. Villa's trend is falling, and it is the steepest fall of any club in our world top 20. The rating is drifting down because the football behind it, in the league at least, has not been at the level of last season. Their plausible world rank runs from 7 to 30, which is a wide band for a club in the top 15. The wide range tells you how much the recent evidence disagrees with the longer record.

Barcelona's range is the narrowest you will find: 1 to 5. They lost the Clásico and lost in Paris and are still the best club in the world on our numbers, because one defeat to a top-six side costs very little and their football in between has been outstanding. They have 30 points from eleven LaLiga games against about 29.0 deserved. That is a luck figure of +1.0, which we label fair. Their trend is rising.

Our style profile picks out three things about Barcelona, all of them extreme for LaLiga: how much of the ball they have, how often they touch it in the opposition box, and how often they win it back. That last one is the part people miss. Barcelona are not only a possession side. They are among the most active defensive sides in Spain once possession is accounted for, which is why opponents struggle to get out.

Two seasons ahead of the chances

Villa's luck figure this season is +4.9 points. On its own that would be a warning. What makes it more striking is that it is the second year running. Last season Villa finished +13.9 points ahead of their football, one of the largest figures in Europe. Two seasons of results running well ahead of the chances is not proof of a fluke. Some teams do have a real, repeatable edge in finishing or in goalkeeping. But it is the kind of pattern that usually narrows, and it is narrowing for Villa at home already: their league position has slipped even as the luck stays positive.

Barcelona make a useful comparison, because their luck last season was almost as high, +14.9. This season it is close to zero. The difference is that Barcelona's football improved enough to earn the points the luck used to supply. Villa's football, on our league numbers, went the other way.

Our style profile for Villa has only one strong flag, and it is not a tactical one: squad age. Villa field one of the oldest teams in the Premier League, weighted by minutes. That fits a squad that has been very good together and is managed carefully by Unai Emery. It also fits the falling trend. Experienced sides are often excellent at managing games and at taking the few chances they get, which is one honest explanation for results running ahead of chances. It is also a squad profile that tends to cope less well with an opponent who keeps the ball for long periods and presses high when they lose it. That is exactly the opponent Villa face tonight.

None of this means Villa will be overrun. Emery's teams are among the best-organised in Europe, and Hansi Flick said as much on Monday, calling him one of the best coaches on the continent. Villa have won three European games this season and in Europe they have been more convincing than in England. Our point is narrower. The Villa that is second in the Champions League table and the Villa that is last in England on deserved points are the same squad, and tonight's game will be played against the best side either version has faced.

Team news: Barcelona short at the back

Barcelona's problems are all in defence. Jules Koundé, Eric García, Andreas Christensen and Xavi Espart are out, along with Dani Olmo and Roony Bardghji. Christensen has returned to training but will not be risked. That leaves Flick picking from a thin pool of defenders. João Cancelo, Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín and Alejandro Balde are expected to form the back four, with Joan García in goal.

The attack is close to full strength. Lamine Yamal, Raphinha and Anthony Gordon are all expected to start, with Pedri in midfield. Gordon, who joined from the Premier League, said before the game that Villa were very good, always fully engaged and had one of the best managers in the world.

Villa are missing Amadou Onana, Matteo Ruggeri and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, with no new concerns. The expected side has Zion Suzuki in goal, Pau Torres and Victor Lindelöf in central defence, Boubacar Kamara in midfield and Nicolas Jackson up front, with Matty Cash and Ian Maatsen at full-back.

The absences shape the tactical question. Barcelona's weakness, if they have one tonight, is a patched-up defence. Villa's best route is the one Emery's sides use well: sit compact, win the ball, and attack the space behind quickly. A makeshift back line is more likely to concede from fast breaks and set pieces than from long spells of pressure. If Villa score, that is where it will probably come from.

What our numbers say about tonight

We do not put percentages on games, and the table tells you who the favourite is. What our numbers add is a sense of how big the gap really is and where each side's results have come from. Barcelona are about 1.0 goals a game better on our ratings. That is a large gap between two clubs who both sit in the world top 15. Barcelona's results also come from their football. Villa's league results, for two seasons running, have come partly from somewhere else.

The European record changes the picture only a little. Three wins is a small sample, and our rating already includes them. Villa were rated highly before the Champions League began, and three good results have kept them in the top 15 while their league numbers slide. That is the rating working as designed. It moves slowly and it weighs every game by the strength of the opponent.

The interesting thing to watch is not the score but the pattern. If Villa keep it tight and score from a set piece or a break, that will be consistent with how they have been winning: efficiently, from fewer chances than their opponents. If Barcelona dominate the ball and the chances, as their profile says they should, the question becomes whether a makeshift defence holds up against an experienced side that is very good at taking what it is given.

Where both clubs stand in the wider ranking

In this week's World Ranking, published this morning, Barcelona lead a top three separated by six points, with Arsenal and Bayern München close behind. Villa sit 14th, in a crowded band that also includes Roma and Manchester United. The same article names Villa as the warning case in the Premier League's Luck Table: no club in England is further ahead of its own football in relative terms.

For Villa, tonight is a chance to show that the European form is the real version of the team. For Barcelona, it is a chance to put two defeats behind them against the only unbeaten side in their part of the table. The ratings say Barcelona should win the argument. The Champions League table says Villa have already won a few they were not expected to.

Every club's rating, schedule and luck figure is on its club page, and the full table is in the world club ranking. How the ranking works explains the method in plain words.