The short answerOur preview said Dortmund v Bremen would be closer than the brands suggested, while our ratings still favoured Dortmund. Dortmund won 3-2 with a free kick in the third minute of stoppage time, after Bremen came back from 2-0 down. We are grading that call a hit, with one part we got wrong. The preview gave no probability, and we have not added one.
From today we are keeping a public record of our calls. When a preview makes a clear claim about a game, we will come back afterwards, say whether it held up, and keep the result on file. We start with Tuesday night's DFB-Pokal tie in Dortmund.
What we said
Our preview was titled "closer than the brands suggest". It said Dortmund's rating fell once their soft Bundesliga schedule was counted, that Bremen had faced one of the toughest runs in the division, and that the tie was "not a procession". It also said our ratings still favoured Dortmund by about a goal a game. It did not predict a score or give a percentage.
What happened
Dortmund were 2-0 up after 17 minutes. Serhou Guirassy finished from Julian Ryerson's lay-off in the sixth minute and Carney Chukwuemeka scored from Jobe Bellingham's header in the 17th. After the hour, Ryerson was penalised for pulling back Dariusz Stalmach, and substitute Niclas Füllkrug scored the penalty in the 65th minute. Four minutes later he nutmegged Waldemar Anton and scored from 20 yards to make it 2-2.
Bremen were on top for much of the second half. Then, in the third minute of stoppage time, Marcel Sabitzer curled a free kick past Karl Hein and Dortmund were through.
Both sides had 12 shots. Bremen had six on target, Dortmund four. The published chance-quality figures also had Bremen ahead on the night.
Our grade
The main call: hit. "Closer than the brands suggest" held up. The game was level for 24 minutes after Bremen's comeback. It was settled in the 93rd minute, and Bremen matched Dortmund for shots. It was not a procession.
The favourite: Dortmund went through, as our ratings expected, but the narrow margin is no evidence for the size of the gap we quoted.
The published chance-quality figures also had Bremen ahead on the night.
What we got wrong. The preview said that if Dortmund scored early, "the schedule story probably does not matter". They scored twice in the first 17 minutes, and it still mattered. Bremen's comeback is exactly the kind of night the preview warned about, but we underplayed how possible it was after an early Dortmund lead.
How we will keep score
Each call goes on file with the date we made it, what we claimed and how we graded it. When a preview gives a probability, we will score it against the result. When it does not, as here, we will grade the written claim and say so. We will not invent a number after the event to make the record look more scientific.
Our record so far: one call graded, one hit, with one wrong note recorded. That is too small a sample to mean anything yet. The point is to start the record now, before we know how it will look.
FAQ
What was the Dortmund v Bremen score?
Dortmund won 3-2 in the DFB-Pokal second round on 27 October 2026. Guirassy and Chukwuemeka scored, Füllkrug scored twice for Bremen, and Sabitzer won it with a stoppage-time free kick.
What did the Beaumont Index predict?
That the tie would be closer than the club names suggested, with Dortmund still favoured on our ratings. There was no score prediction or probability.
How does the Beaumont Index grade its predictions?
Each clear claim is logged with the date it was made and graded after the game. Probabilities are scored when they were given; we never add one after the event.