The short answerLiverpool and Chelsea drew 1-1 at Anfield and Liverpool won the shootout 6-5. Normal time was close to even: 10 shots to 11 and four on target each. Our preview said Liverpool rated slightly higher, by under a quarter of a goal a game. A level night fits that, but one cup tie is not proof of anything.
Liverpool are in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals after beating Chelsea 6-5 on penalties at Anfield on Wednesday night. The game finished 1-1, and both goals came from the spot in the space of three first-half minutes. Andoni Iraola's side will face his old club Bournemouth in the last eight.
Before the game we argued that both sides were better than their recent results and that Liverpool still rated a little higher. This is our check on that, done in public.
What happened
The first half-hour produced little. Then, in the 38th minute, Moisés Caicedo went down under a challenge from Ryan Gravenberch and Chelsea were given a penalty. Morgan Rogers scored it in the 40th minute. Almost straight away Wesley Fofana handled from a Liverpool corner, and Cody Gakpo converted the second penalty in the 43rd minute.
The second half had chances at both ends. Mike Penders saved a close-range header from Ronald Araújo around the hour. Giorgi Mamardashvili made a one-handed save from Marco Palestra late on. In the closing stages, last-ditch blocks from Levi Colwill and Josh Acheampong stopped Florian Wirtz and Gakpo from close range.
The shootout went to sudden death. Valentín Barco hit the post for Chelsea and Kostas Tsimikas blazed over with the chance to win it for Liverpool. Penders saved from Gravenberch and Mamardashvili saved from Emmanuel Emegha. After Joe Gomez scored, Fofana sent his kick over the bar. It is the fifth time Chelsea have lost a shootout to Liverpool.
The numbers from normal time
Liverpool had 10 shots and Chelsea 11. Each side had four on target. Liverpool had 52% of the ball. The published chance-quality figures had Liverpool slightly ahead, but not by enough to call it anything other than an even game.
Context matters here. Iraola made seven changes from the weekend win over Brighton. Only Araújo, Gakpo, Gravenberch and Virgil van Dijk kept their places, with Wirtz, Bradley Barcola, Alexander Isak and Alexis Mac Allister coming off the bench.
Valentín Barco hit the post for Chelsea and Kostas Tsimikas blazed over with the chance to win it for Liverpool.
Scoring our preview
Our preview made three claims. We said Liverpool still rated higher than Chelsea, and that the gap was under a quarter of a goal a game. A heavily rotated Liverpool side holding an even game with Chelsea is consistent with a small gap. It does not confirm it.
We said Chelsea had faced the harder Premier League schedule and were not a crisis side after the 2-0 defeat to Tottenham. They matched Liverpool for shots on target at Anfield and came within one kick of winning the shootout. On this evidence, that reading holds.
We also said Chelsea's results had run ahead of their performances this season. One draw at Anfield neither supports nor undermines that, and we would be overreaching to claim otherwise.
The preview did not predict a score or a winner, so there is no result to grade. Penalty shootouts are the part of football our ratings say least about, and we will not pretend that the order of sixteen kicks tells us who the better team is.
What's next
Liverpool host Bournemouth in the quarter-finals. Chelsea go back to the Premier League at home to Manchester United on Saturday lunchtime. Our ratings still put Liverpool above Chelsea. Wednesday did nothing to change that, or to strengthen it.
FAQ
What was the Liverpool v Chelsea score?
1-1 after 90 minutes, with penalties from Morgan Rogers and Cody Gakpo. Liverpool won the shootout 6-5.
Who missed in the shootout?
Valentín Barco hit the post and Wesley Fofana went over for Chelsea, with Emmanuel Emegha saved. For Liverpool, Kostas Tsimikas went over and Ryan Gravenberch was saved.
Did the Index preview get it right?
The preview said Liverpool rated slightly higher and both sides were better than their results. An even game fits that, but the preview made no score prediction to grade.